Wheat Market Update - A Dangerous Escalation?
Monday 25th November 2024
Welcome to this week’s market update! Each week, we'll delve into the market movements and key factors affecting wheat prices. Whether you're a fellow industry professional, a supplier, or simply interested in what’s happening in the market, our updates will offer valuable insights to keep you ahead of the curve.
Market Report
Market Trends:
The market has shown a general downward trend in market prices over the last month. . The European market rose on Friday in response to escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia. However, there has been no immediate impact on grain exports from the Black Sea, which is limiting price movements upwards.
Winter Wheat Drilling:
Drilling for Winter Wheat has progressed well despite a late start, with favourable conditions. This contrasts with last year when heavy rain caused significant delays.
Soft Wheat Availability:
Soft wheat remains in short supply, driving premiums higher. The popular 2023 variety, Skyscraper, suffered badly from disease, so less was planted for the 2024 crop. A new variety, Bamford, is expected to address this shortfall in 2025.
Imports and Pricing:
Significant imports of competitively priced wheat from Europe and Canada have provided additional cover for this year's smaller harvest.
Milling wheat premiums (delivered to Harlow / Enfield) have dropped significantly due to these imports, falling from £50/tonne on 25th October to £42 / tonne as of today (25/11/24)
Consumer Demand and Farmer Sentiment:
Consumer demand has been generally weak. Farmers, unhappy with current prices, are also reluctant to sell.
Cereal Quality Survey (AHDB Results):
The AHDB has released this year’s cereal quality survey for the 2024 harvest, with the highlights below. Please follow the link to the website for the entire report and data set. Cereal Quality Survey | AHDB
Protein Content: Group 1 varieties average 12.5% protein, below the 13.0% milling requirement. This marks a decline from 12.7% in 2023 and the lowest level since 2014.
Specific Weight: The average is 77.8kg/hl, above the milling specification (76.0kg/hl), higher than 2023 (75.8kg/hl), but slightly below the five-year average (78.0kg/hl).
Hagberg Falling Numbers (HFN): Group 1 wheat averages 343 seconds, a 58-second improvement over last year and 32 seconds above the five-year average.
French Plantings
Expectations for a larger French winter wheat crop for 2025 are growing as planting has reached a record pace. Currently sitting at 90% complete and up from the five-year average of 87%
