Wheat Market Update - Harvest 2024 Begins
Friday 9th August 2024
Welcome to this week’s market update! Each week, we'll delve into the market movements and key factors affecting wheat prices. Whether you're a fellow industry professional, a supplier, or simply interested in what’s happening in the market, our updates will offer valuable insights to keep you ahead of the curve.
Global Focus
A general sideways sentiment remains in global markets. US maize production continues to weigh on global wheat markets as Chicago corn futures (Dec-24) were trading below $4/bsh last week, a low not seen since December 2020.
Canadian wheat pricing remains at seasonal lows, with the current spot price sitting at £280.
Concerns remain over a lower European production of wheat, and speculation that Russian prices had found a floor continued to support the market.
Concerns remain over the French wheat harvest, following a lot of heavy rain. The most recent forecast pegs French wheat production at 26 millon tonnes, the lowest since the 1980’s.
With bumper global maize production and expectations of tighter domestic and global wheat supplies this season, it is likely that we may see some demand shift to maize. As such, any change in price direction for maize markets will likely impact wheat.
UK Focus - Harvest 2024 Underway
Nov-24 futures open this morning at £193.50 down from £196 on the 22/07
Harvest is now well underway in the UK. In the home counties, yields are reasonable; this is an average-sized harvest so far. Most farmers are doing about their five-year average. Quality, in many ways, is good. The grains are quite small due to the lack of sunshine in May and June, but bushel weights are very good. We are looking at 74-84 kg/hl, with the average looking at 80 kg/hl.
Hagberg and Moistures are fine. Proteins are looking okay on the GP1s with an average so far of 12.6%.
There are concerns around Low Protein Hard and Soft wheats, with proteins suffering here.This is due to a Lack of sunshine, so we don’t get the free protein. Farmers haven’t spent nitrogen on lower-grade wheat.
So far we are 25% through the harvest. The wheat drilled in in Oct23 is now being harvested, with the later drilled wheat not yet being ready.
An encouraging picture so far.
Summary
A good start to the UK harvest for breadmaking wheat, with encouraging results across the board so far. Protein averages so far hovering around 12.6%. The second wave of planted wheat is yet to be harvested, as it is not ready. We wait to see how this translates into quality.
Global markets have moved mostly sideways, with concerns about the state of the wheat crop in France and Germany.
Canadian wheat pricing remains very competitive
