Wheat Market Update - How long until harvest?
Tuesday 23rd July 204
Welcome to this week’s market update! Each week, we'll delve into the market movements and key factors affecting wheat prices. Whether you're a fellow industry professional, a supplier, or simply interested in what’s happening in the market, our updates will offer valuable insights to keep you ahead of the curve.
Global Focus
The IGC increased global production estimates by 7.9mt to 801mt due to large crops in the US, Canada, Kazakhstan and Pakistan. This added a notable amount to the end-of-season stock forecast. However, they remain 0.8mt lower than the 23/24 season.
Since last week’s report, we have seen a slight rebound in markets.
As discussed last week, we have seen a significant decrease in Canadian wheat prices. This was driven by the strong pound and the weak Minneapolis futures. This weakness resulted from good crop ratings in the US and better-than-expected harvest progress in the US and Russia. The spot Canadian wheat price got down to £267 per tonne on Thursday.
However, Friday’s change of direction for Canadian pricing was brought on by high temperatures (34/36c) and the concern the impact of this could have on the crop. The spot Canadian Wheat price has jumped up to £280 this morning on the back of Friday’s weather-related news.
Winter barley is being harvested in Northern Europe at the moment, and so far, results from France and Germany have been disappointing. With reduced yields and lower specific weights, the lower planted area as a result of the wet weather is drawing further concerns for the upcoming wheat harvest.
UK Focus
Nov 24 Futures opened today at £196 / tonne, up from £191 this time last week.
Last week, we spent some time on a couple of farms in Kent. We were with Stuart and Jenny on Swallow Mill Farm in Ashford and William and Mark on New Shelve Farm in Maidstone. The condition of the milling wheat we saw was great! However, it still needs another two to four weeks of sunshine before it is ready to harvest. The fields looked full, and the grains in the ears of the wheat looked quite large, although we need some good sun between now and harvest for the grain fill to be the best it can at this stage.
Summary
A reasonable jump was seen on Friday in the Canadian wheat price. Domestic markets saw a slight uptick, with Nov-24 futures up a few £s.
Conditions of Winter Barley are disappointing in France and Germany, with variability seen in what has been harvested so far, which is not a surprise really, with all of the rain that we have seen. The condition of the barley crops is normally a litmus test for the upcoming wheat harvest.
Hopefully, some well-needed sun will help with grain fill heading into August. With a mid to late August harvest expected on the wheat (although this is regional and will vary)
Expect markets to be up and down until we have a good picture of the new harvest.
